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A report by The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that China will become the world’s largest economy by 2028, underwritten by its performance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The CEBR has noted 2% growth in China in 2020, as opposed to USA contraction of 5%, which will be further compounded by a forecast global GDP decline of over 4% in 2021.

Sino-American relations, is a critical geostrategic area to watch, with potentially multiple military, diplomatic and trade tensions underlying their relationship. More broadly, the global reaction to China in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic must also be closely watched; for example will there be a backlash against China in areas such as manufacturing and supply chains?

China is not the only Asian economy potentially poised for solid growth, and the UK and other nations would do well to watch and learn from such Asian economies if they are to foster sustainable and solid economic foundations, recovery and growth in 2021 and onwards.

India overtook both The United Kingdom and France in 2020, but then fell back temporarily, and is set to once again overtake The United Kingdom by 2024 at the latest, and then become the world’s third largest economy by the early to mid 2030’s. Positively in light of Brexit, The United Kingdom’s economy is forecast to grow to some 40% grater than that of France in the same timeframe.

With a specific focus on the UK, we look to remain the world’s fifth largest economy in 2021 and be amongst the ‘better’ economic performers over the next decade or so, with CEBR growth forecasts sitting at 4% per annum for the period 2021-25 and about 2% per annum for the period 2031-35.

The GENCOM Group

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